Lately I have become increasingly more frustrated with all of the misinformation regarding the real estate market in this country. I frequent several forums, where I often find agents as well as the public misquoting market data. To add to this, we are constantly bombarded by media coverage of how horrible the market is, and alarming statistics claiming that prices have fallen more than 30%. While this may be true for some of the biggest bubble markets as well as automobile-dependent economies in the Midwest, from what I see in my neck of the woods, and what I hear from other very knowledgeable agents, this it is not true for the majority of the country.

Another common misconception is that investors are not putting their money into the real estate market, and that anyone who does so is crazy. This couldn’t be further from the truth. If you don’t believe me, then go spend a few hours down at your local court house and watch as hundreds of people bid up the price of foreclosed property.

My frustrations reached a new high when I attended a training class on the new tools provided by ERA real estate. Whenever the speaker asked questions on market numbers for our area, almost no one in the room could answer. The few times agents around me did, they were completely wrong; sometimes reporting numbers that were far too rosy, and others reporting obscenely negative numbers that are not supported by the county records or MLS data. The final straw came when our group was eating lunch at a local restaurant and I happened to sit down at a table with a member of the public. She started asking me about how the market was and telling me what she had heard. Very little of it was accurate, and most of it was overly gloomy for the Houston real estate market.

Rather than being upset, I have decided to start a new series on my blog, where I will post statistics for different major metro areas across the country. I have made arrangements with agents in various markets to share market MLS data with me for this venture.

The first market I will discuss is widely acknowledged to be one of the hardest hit by the economic downturn. The Detroit area has suffered from high rates of unemployment, and was seeing troubles long before most other markets even slowed. Mark Zawaideh, an agent who covers the Detroit metro area and specializes in Northville, Michigan, was kind enough to provide me with MLS statistics for Detroit and surrounding areas.

Mark Z. is a very experienced, successful agent, and should be considered an authority on his market. Below you can find a list of his credentials.

  • 98% Avg List To Sell Price
  • 78 Average Days On Market In 07′
  • Top 1% of All Real Estate Agents In The Entire Country
  • Every 5 Days A Home Is SOLD By MARK Z.
  • Presidents Top 30 Member Year After Year
  • Exclusive Online Marketing Campaign Targeting Over 100 Internet Sites
  • Over $12 MILLION DOLLARS In Real Estate SOLD In 2007
  • Proven Track Record (77 Homes SOLD In 07′), Predicting a Successful Future
  • Specializes In Selling Homes Other Realtors Couldn’t Sell
  • Custom Proactive Marketing Plan Guaranteed To Work
  • Referral Network of over 2,000 Real Estate Agents Throughout North America To Help You Buy Or Sell Anywhere In The Country

In September of this year, the Detroit metro area saw an increase in sales in every county compared with September of 2007. This is in strict contradiction with the idea that sales are plummeting across the country. The entire Detroit metro area was up 57.12% in September of 2008 compared to September of 2007.

Another major contradiction to the media’s statements that inventory is rising across the country, is that the Detroit metro area has experienced a decline of 16.43% in total inventory when comparing September of 2008 with September of 2007.

The only point on which the national media has possibly been correct when it comes to the Detroit market is in regard to price declines, as the Detroit metro area experienced a 34.1% decline in the median home sale price in September of 2008 in comparison to September of 2007. The median home sale price refers to the price at which 50% of the homes sold for less and 50% of the homes sold for more, and is used as a factor in determining appreciation of real estate markets. Below is an in-depth view of the market statistics in each of the counties that the Detroit MLS covers.

September 2008 Residential and Condo SALES Summary by Area/County

Area

September, 2008

September, 2007

Percent Change

ALL MLS

5,818–37% Foreclosures

3,703

57.12% Up

City of Detroit

1,019–67% Foreclosures

564

80.67% Up

Livingston

200–28% Foreclosures

138

44.93% Up

Macomb

754–42% Foreclosures

478

57.74% Up

Oakland

1,422–34% Foreclosures

941

51.12% Up

St. Clair Area

128–30% Foreclosures

102

25.49% Up

Wayne

2,278–51% Foreclosures

1,320

72.58% Up


Res & Condo LISTING INVENTORY by Area/County

Area

# of On Market Listings
September, 2008

# of On Market Listings
September, 2007

Change in Inventory from last year

ALL MLS

63,453

75,932

16.43% Down

City of Detroit

8,810

11,705

24.73% Down

Livingston

2,729

3,358

18.73% Down

Macomb

7,850

9,523

17.57% Down

Oakland

17,666

20,832

15.20% Down

St. Clair Area

1,816

2,137

15.02% Down

Wayne

20,834

24,827

16.08% Down


MEDIAN PRICE INFORMATION by Area/County

Area

Median Sale Price on All Sales September of 2008

Median Sale Price on All Sales September of 2007

Median Price Change

ALL MLS

$85,000

$129,000

34.1% Down

City of Detroit

$9,250

$21,250

57.0% Down

Livingston

$158,950

$190,000

16.3% Down

Macomb

$103,900

$130,000

20.1% Down

Oakland

$132,000

$175,750

24.9% Down

St. Clair Area

$86,250

$121,850

29.2% Down

Wayne

$35,000

$76,000

53.9% Down

I hope that you found the above information useful, and I plan to cover more markets in the near future. I would like to give a big thank you to Mark Z for providing the data and tables above. To read Mark’s analysis of the Detroit market situation click the link below.

Metro Detroit Home Sales Report September 2008

2 Responses to “Get The Facts On The National Housing Market”

  1. MARK Z Says:

    Great post James, everything you said is so true my friend. The bottom line is bad news sells papers! Don’t get me wrong the real estate market is not good, but if the media wouldn’t keep talking about it so much, the public wouldn’t be so scared to invest. People are still buying and selling homes. People bought and sold homes in the late 80’s when interest rates were 14%. This is a great time to buy with prices at all time lows and interest rates in the low 6’s. Wow what an opportunity.

  2. admin Says:

    I am with you Mark I think rates are going to head back to at least the 8% range in the not to distant future. If I am right about interest rates then that means prices would have to fall more than 10% from were they are now for home buyers to break even on a monthly level. Sounds like even if we are not at the bottom for home prices we are most likely at the bottom when it comes to monthly payments.

    I think it sure is to bad so many are paralyzed by fear as I think many are going to miss out on the homes in the best shape. It still suprises me how human nature works. Almost no one was afraid to buy when prices were at their peak but now that they have fallen 30% in some parts of the country people are afraid to buy thinking they might over pay. Oh, the irony! I will leave you with one of my favorite quotes “Be afraid when others are greedy and be greedy when others are afraid” – Warren Buffet

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