The Houston Housing Market has been posting numbers far better in all categories than were seen last year, however, the statistics last year were depressed by Hurricane Ike and so cause difficulty in determining how strong of a rebound the market is experiencing. The last three months numbers have been very close to those that we saw prior to the recession setting in, in the winter of 2007. Sales this month are up huge compared to 2008 and are down just 10% from those posted this time of year in 2007. We have also seen inventory burned off the last three months and total dollars in sales volume note a return to home price appreciation.
I have been doing a large amount of data mining over the last week and expect this to be the last month we see huge improvements in the indicators of market strength. I feel as though a lot of the recent sales seen are largely driven by first time home buyers trying to assure that they made their new home purchase prior to the $8,000 Federal Tax Credit Expiring.
I expect to see numbers for December 2009 that are worse or more in line with the numbers we posted in 2008. From my recent data mining I can tell you that the Houston housing market has seen appreciation numbers that more resemble the norm for the area and that market inventory levels are still remaining stable in the under $500,000 market. I expect that we have finally hit bottom and will slowly begin rebounding following this winter. This assumes that we do not see any further large layoffs. As unemployment is the wild card and continues to prevent the ability to predict out further than a month or two.
I will be releasing a S&P 500 Case Shiller market index like home price appreciation index in the next few months following my data mining activities this winter. So, please come around and keep an eye on updates here. In addition we have recently added real time active listing data charts for the entire Houston housing market. If you would like to see how things are looking for the local market click here.
The Full Report By HAR Is Posted Verbatim Below:
The effects of Hurricane Ike and simultaneous economic downturn affecting Houston’s real estate market in November 2008 continue to distort year-over-year comparisons which reflect yet another month of double-digit increases. However, longer-term analysis aimed at gleaning a more realistic view of market conditions shows November 2009 real estate activity to be comparable to that seen at the cusp of the recession, in the fall of 2007.
November marked the third straight month in which property sales volume and pricing recorded gains. According to the latest monthly data compiled by the Houston Association of REALTORS® (HAR), November volume of single-family home sales across the greater Houston area rose 32.8 percent compared to November 2008. Total property sales climbed 37.1 percent in November on a year-over-year basis.
In addition to the comparative affects on sales data from last year’s natural disaster and economic recession, HAR member REALTORS® report that at least some of the month’s homebuying activity can be attributed to consumers scurrying to beat the original November 30 homebuyer tax credit deadline before Congress voted to extend and expand the program.
At $150,000, the November single-family home median price—the figure at which half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less—rose 8.7 percent from one year earlier, representing the seventh straight monthly increase in median price. The average price of a single-family home in Houston was $198,948, up 6.7 percent last month versus November 2008. The median price reached the highest level ever for a month of November in Houston.
Foreclosure property sales continued to decline in November, making up 15.8 percent of all single-family home sales in the Houston area compared to 27.4 percent in November 2008 and the 12-month peak of 34.0 percent in January of this year. The median price of November foreclosure sales reported in the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) rose 9.5 percent to $93,000 on a year-over-year basis.
Sales of all property types in Houston for November totaled 5,353, up 37.1 percent compared to November 2008. Total dollar volume for properties sold during the month was $1.0 billion versus $714 million one year earlier, representing an increase of 44.5 percent.
“This is the third month in a row in which a year-over-year comparison exaggerates the local housing landscape because Hurricane Ike continued to hurt the Houston real estate market last November,” said Vicki Fullerton, HAR chair and broker of record at RE/MAX of The Woodlands & Spring. “We are very encouraged that property sales activity appears to be close to levels reached right before the recession took hold, and expect more realistic year-over-year data in the months ahead so we can again compare apples to apples.”
November Monthly Market Comparison
The month of November brought Houston’s overall housing market positive results when all listing categories are compared to November of 2008. Total property sales, total dollar volume and both median and average single-family home sales prices were all up on a year-over-year basis.
The number of available properties, or active listings, at the end of November fell 4.0 percent from November 2008 to 45,452. That housing inventory represents 28 more active listings than one month earlier, in October 2009.
November’s month-end pending sales—those listings expected to close within the next 30 days—totaled 2,741, which was 12.8 percent lower than last year. While such a decrease typically portends a decline in sales volume for the following month, the Hurricane Ike effect and interest in the homebuyer tax credit make it tricky to forecast. The months inventory of single-family homes for November came in at 6.0 months, down from 6.1 months one year earlier, and remains healthier than the national months inventory of single-family homes of 7.0 months, reported by the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR).
| CATEGORIES |
November 2008 |
November 2009 |
PERCENT CHANGE |
| Total property sales |
3,904 |
5,353 |
37.1% |
| Total dollar volume |
$713,994,683 |
$1,031,455,912 |
44.5% |
| Total active listings |
47,354 |
45,452 |
-4.0% |
| Total pending sales |
3,144 |
2,741 |
-12.8% |
| Average single-family sales price |
$186,449 |
$198,948 |
6.7% |
| Median single-family sales price |
$138,000 |
$150,000 |
8.7% |
| Months inventory* |
6.1 |
6.0 |
-1.8% |
Single-Family Homes Update
At $150,000, the median sales price for single-family homes rose for the seventh consecutive month, up 8.7 percent from November 2008. That represents the highest median price ever recorded in a month of November in Houston. The national single-family median price reported by NAR is $173,100, illustrating the continued higher value and lower cost of living that consumers enjoy in the Houston market. The average price of single-family homes in October was $198,948, an increase of 6.7 percent from one year earlier.
November sales of single-family homes in Houston totaled 4,519, up 32.8 percent from November 2008. This is the third consecutive monthly increase in sales volume and, again, is considered an anomaly because of Hurricane Ike’s disruption of thousands of real estate transactions last fall.
HAR also reports existing home statistics for the single-family home segment of the real estate market. In November 2009, existing single-family home sales totaled 3,721, a 34.8 percent increase from November 2008. At $142,000, the median sales price for existing homes in the Houston area rose 13.6 percent compared to last year. The average sales price of $182,883 climbed 12.3 percent from its November 2008 level.
Townhouse/Condo Update
The number of townhouses and condominiums sold in November rose dramatically compared to one year earlier—again, the product of the market interruption caused by Hurricane Ike. In the greater Houston area, 502 units were sold last month versus 286 properties in November 2008, translating to a 75.5 percent boost in year-over-year sales.
The median price of a townhouse/condominium rose 13.7 percent year-over-year to $134,500. The average price climbed 5.3 percent to $162,708 from November 2008 to November 2009.
Lease Property Update
Demand for single-family home rentals fell 9.0 percent in November compared to a year earlier. Year-over-year townhouse/condominium rentals declined by 2.9 percent.
Houston Real Estate Milestones in November
• Single-family homes sales increased for a third consecutive month, by 32.8 percent;
• Existing single-family home sales increased for a third consecutive month, by 34.8 percent;
• Total property sales increased for a third consecutive month, by 37.1 percent;
• The median price of a single-family home was up for the seventh straight month, reaching the highest level ever recorded in a November ($150,000);
• Month’s inventory of single-family homes dropped from 6.1 to 6.0 months compared to the national average of 7.0 months
December 18th, 2009 at 1:22 am
That’s a huge number of home sames increasing, 32.8%!!! Wow! Do you think it has to do with the tax credit for first time home buyers expiring and will drop off in the coming months?
December 18th, 2009 at 1:23 am
Oops, I meant to say “sales” not “sames” Sorry!
December 19th, 2009 at 5:24 am
I believe the jump in sales is noted for two reasons. First last November was a really bad time for the Houston metro area when it comes to home sales because of Hurrican Ike. So, those numbers are up so much because of the fact that last November was so bad. Then I believe a portion of the transactions were due to the first time home buyer tax credit. As prior to the credit being extended people were rushing to make the deadline. You can see that by the fall inventory over the period. I think we will see a drop of 12-15% in home sales for December.
February 5th, 2010 at 2:18 am
Wow that was a really thorough post. A lot of work and thought evidenced here.
In the Uk, central government was active in stimulating the economy in 2008. Now gradually this wide range of economic stimuli are being withdrawn. The empirical evidence is suggesting that these have been valuable in preventing this recession turning into a depression. The test is whether this economy will continue to recover when the stimulus is removed. The UK and Spanish Property market for expats is very dependent upon this recovery.
April 7th, 2010 at 7:52 pm
nice records ,real estate really have lot of money